Assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries (Inglês)

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/pt/728681487169710866/Assessing-the-accuracy-of-electricity-demand-forecasts-in-developing-countries

RESUMO

This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.

--

Sandro Geraldo Bagattoli

http://mercadoee.blogspot.com.br/

ᐧ

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Mercado de Energia Elétrica" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to meefurb+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To post to this group, send email to meefurb@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

About "Administrator"

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Vivamus suscipit, augue quis mattis gravida, est dolor elementum felis, sed vehicula metus quam a mi. Praesent dolor felis, consectetur nec convallis vitae.